Pakistan Post-Election Analysis

Courtesy: CSIS, USA
Continuing our Pakistan election teleconference series, we hosted four experts from Pakistan who discussed the recent parliamentary election results, their implications, and what they believe is next for Pakistan. A full audio recording of the event is available here.

Mr. Najam Sethi, the Editor of the Daily Times, spoke of the vindication of the Pakistani people, evidenced by the PML-Q's (President Musharraf's party) loss of power, but also through the rise of the secular and moderate parties. Sethi believes the best path forward would be the formation of a pro-democratic coalition government, including Musharraf’s party, to thwart the conflict sure to come if Musharraf is isolated. Sethi cautions that there will be a time when Musharraf needs to bow down but now might not the best time. In regards to the replacement of the MMA (conservative, religious party) in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Sethi remarks that violence perpetrated by extremist groups created a backlash against the religious parties. However, if the moderate parties (ANP was largest winner in the FATA) are bogged down by in-fighting and fail to strengthen governance in the regions, the religious parties will be in a position to capitalize on these potential failures.
Mr. Ahmed Mehboob, Executive Director, Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), described the current situation in Pakistan as an autocratic transition to democracy. Similar to Mr. Sethi, Mr. Mehboob believes the election results represent widespread sentiment against the policies of President Musharraf, especially regarding to the rule of law. The rule of law issue will be among the first challenges faced by the newly elected parliament. Mehboob points out that if the judges are not restored, the will of the people will not be fully recognized. Touching on religious extremism, he points out that the districts won by the MMA in 2002 signify a form of protest against what was going on in the country at the time and should not be viewed as a vote for religious extremism. Similarly the ANP’s success should not be taken as a vote against religious sentiment in Pakistan, but instead a vote for improved governance and rule of law. Mehboob concluded with his hopes for an eventual sovereign parliament, meaning a clearer separation and independence from presidential authority.
Glenn Cowan, Co-Founder and CEO of Democracy International (DI), led DI's election observation mission. (Read the delegation's press release on the election process here.) He explained that although Election Day went much better than anticipated (with a 30-40% turnout rate) the election environment was anything but democratic. There were a series of systematic problems in the election process, he explains, and both Pakistan and the international community will find themselves in the same uncertain situation in the next election if political parties do not address basic underlying issues. Cowan also stressed the parties should become more internally democratic in how they are run and pick their leaders. If not, the government will continue on an autocratic and corrupt course, unable to be a representative body that produces positive change.
Staffan Darnolf, Country Director, IFES Pakistan, focused on the polling centers on the day of the election. Darnolf urges against accepting the election results at a face value. He explained that 20% of the polling centers opened late, many were poorly managed, and the ballot counts were anything but transparent. Darnolf pointed out that there is no way of knowing what the definite results are considering no one was allowed to observe the aggregate counts completed by returning officers. This lack of transparency can breed contempt and suspicion.
Published in Daily Dawn, Pakistan and uploaded by The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).